Russian President Vladimir Putin recently placed his country’s nuclear arsenal on “special combat duty regime,” suggesting a rise in the alert level. He also warned that interference with his military invasion of Ukraine would spark consequences “never before experienced in your history.” The move was intentionally ambiguous, and international experts are conflicted about what it portends. While some view it as a meaningless provocation, others see in it an escalation toward nuclear conflict.
The mixed messages have led many Christians to wonder if nuclear war with Russia has suddenly become more likely. And, if so, is it something we should be anxious about?
Let’s start with the first question: How likely is a nuclear war with Russia?
We can think about the probability of nuclear war in one of two ways: (1) the probability can be calculated but not with precision, and (2) the probability cannot be determined because we lack the information to make a valid estimate. The group you align with determines how you view such probabilities.
For those who take position #1, the best estimates are that there’s about a 1.1 percent chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38 percent per year. As Alex Tabarrok points out, “For a child born today (say 75 year life expectancy) these probabilities (.0117) suggest that the chance of a nuclear war in their lifetime is nearly 60% (1-(1-.0117)^75).”
For those who take position #2, the probability is somewhere between 0 and 100 percent—and no reliable number in between can be determined. The reason is that any estimates, whether by experts or nonexperts, are based on predictions that cannot be adequately quantified. Any estimation—such as .38 percent a year—could be either optimistically low or pessimistically high; we simply do not have enough data to make a reliable guess.
Whichever side we take, we should consider why we’re looking for numerical precision on the question. Some individuals who work in the military or government agencies might need such probabilistic assumptions to help them make decisions about nuclear policy. But for many of us, we likely have no way to usefully use such probabilities. We’re merely seeking a false sense of precision about what we already believe, whether we think the likelihood is high or low. The probability is merely a justification for helping us answer the question, “How worried should we be?”
Scripture and Nuclear Anxiety
After the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the world began to experience a condition that would become known as “nuclear anxiety”—a fear of nuclear war and of its consequence. During the Cold War era, almost every family in America had someone who experienced anxiety about a nuclear war. The condition mostly tapered off with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. But for some people, nuclear anxiety has never gone away.
While the Bible says nothing directly about nuclear weapons, it does have quite a lot to say about anxiety. For example, Jesus says, “Do not be anxious about tomorrow, for tomorrow will be anxious for itself” (Matt. 6:34), and Paul says, “Do not be anxious about anything” (Phil. 4:6).
While the Bible says nothing directly about nuclear weapons, it does have quite a lot to say about anxiety.
Depending on the context, anxiety may be one of four types: (1) a God-given emotional response for our benefit, (2) a disordered physiological response that is not sinful, (3) a natural consequence of sin, or (4) a sinful response to God’s providential care.
To understand type #1, it’s helpful to start by distinguishing it from the related concept of fear. Anxiety and fear are closely related because they’re similar emotions working on different time frames. Fear is an emotional response to a real or perceived immediate threat; anxiety is an emotional response to a real or perceived future threat. Fear is a physiological and/or emotional warning system that alerts us to danger right now, while anxiety is a warning system of impending danger.
If confronted with an immediate threat to our life—such as encountering a wild, dangerous animal—we should be respectfully fearful enough to flee for our own safety and survival. An immediate feeling of anxiety or fear may trigger a natural, God-given emotional response for survival. That sort of anxiety is rarely what we’d consider sinful. Nuclear anxiety doesn’t appear to fit that category.
While it might be connected to Generalized Anxiety Disorder, Panic Disorder, or Social Anxiety, nuclear anxiety is too specific to be a distinct, disordered physiological response. It’s also unlikely to be a natural consequence of our individual sin. An example of this type of anxiety would be if someone was cheating on their spouse and become anxious about their marriage falling apart. That type of anxiety is the result of one’s sinful choices.
Since the threat of nuclear war is not imminent, and thus not a rational fear, most instances of persistent nuclear anxiety appear to fall into the category of a sinful response to God’s providential care. This is anxiety that results because we have a lack of trust in God or in his sovereignty over the world or our lives. This is the type Jesus and Paul were referring to in the passages quoted above.
The primary reason we need not have such anxiety is because, if there is ever a nuclear war, it will only occur because God has allowed it to happen.
If there is ever a nuclear war, it will only occur because God has allowed it to happen.
If the probability of nuclear war seems low to us, we can be thankful that it appears God is preventing such an event from occurring. If the probability seems high, then we should consider whether there is anything God expects us to do to lower the chances. If it’s not within our power to prevent or reduce the likelihood of nuclear war, then it’s not an issue God wants us to be anxious about.
Wisdom from a ‘King of Kings’
We might also say, as did one world leader,
I blessed the Most High, and praised and honored him who lives forever, for his dominion is an everlasting dominion, and his kingdom endures from generation to generation; all the inhabitants of the earth are accounted as nothing, and he does according to his will among the host of heaven and among the inhabitants of the earth; and none can stay his hand or say to him, “What have you done?”
Those words, quoted in Daniel 4:34–35, come from the lips of Nebuchadnezzar. As Bob Deffinbaugh says, “This acknowledgment of the sovereignty of God is made by a man who knows more of human sovereignty than any American ever could. Among the kings of history, this king is ‘the king of kings’ (Dan. 2:37).”
If one of the most powerful world rulers in history could recognize that God is sovereign over all men and all nations, those of us who serve the true and ultimate “King of kings” (1 Tim. 6:15) should be able to do the same. We can trust that, whether he stays his hand or allows war to come, God is always in control.
See Also: 9 Things You Should Know About Nuclear Weapons
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