Wisconsin citizens who bet on elections through prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket could lose their ballot, the state election commission warned last week.
“We want voters to understand that they cannot legally make a bet on an election and cast a ballot in that same election,” Wisconsin Election Commission (WEC) Meagan Wolfe wrote in the press release.
“We are not able to police someone placing a bet on these platforms, but it’s important for voters to understand the consequences if they bet on an election outcome.”
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket exploit regulatory loopholes to effectively allow users to bet on anything — including election outcomes.
The sticking point comes down to the difference between “betting” and “trading.” Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell a kind of futures contract called event contracts. Futures are legitimate investments, but unlike most, the underlying commodity in an event contract isn’t corn or oil — it’s simply whether an event occurs.
An event contract retains its value if the predicted outcome occurs.
The practical result is that Kalshi and Polymarket are regulated as investment platforms but used for gambling.
Kalshi’s “midterm hub,” for example, allows users to buy contracts on multiple 2026 midterm elections at the same time.
Wisconsin statute 6.03(2), which dates back to 1849, prohibits citizens from voting “in any election in which the person has made or become interested, directly or indirectly, in any bet or wager depending upon the result of the election.”
In a meeting earlier this month, WEC decided the statute applied to betting via prediction markets, regardless of the technical distinctions between “trading” and “gambling.”
“[We] do not see how an elector could … truthfully say that they ‘have not made any bet or wager depending upon the result of this election’ if they have offered money in a prediction market, and would receive money if they are correct and would lose money if they are incorrect,” WEC staff concluded.
Kalshi execs reacted poorly, to say the least.
“THIS IS INSANE,” Benjamin Freeman, the man in charge of “politics growth” at Kalshi, wrote on X.
“The [Washington Election] Commission is implying they will literally disenfranchise voters who use Kalshi to trade elections,” he continued. “This is blatantly unconstitutional and illegal.”
Wisconsin is one of 23 states which prohibit all betting on elections. An additional nine ban betting on elections in certain contexts. But WEC itself admits the laws are difficult to enforce. Skeptics argue the bans wouldn’t stand up under legal challenge.
Supporters of election betting prohibitions argue voters shouldn’t be given a monetary incentive to support candidates and ballot measures. Ann Jacobs, a WEC commissioner, told NPR:
We want people voting for the person they think will do the best job at the position they are being elected to. We don’t want people voting for someone who isn’t the best person for the job simply because it is going to line a voter’s pocket.
Betting on elections also introduces opportunities for corruption and manipulation. In the case of prediction markets, for instance, traders could buy up many “yes” contracts affirming a candidate will win office. As the value of the “yes” contracts increase, the candidate could appear to have more support than they actually do, a misleading metric which could affect how people cast their vote.
Kalshi is making money hand over fist by encouraging people to bet on elections. By attacking Wisconsin, Kalshi higher-ups likely hope to prevent other states with election betting bans from issuing similar warnings, which could affect their bottom line.
Parents should see Kalshi’s conduct as a major red flag. Prediction markets care about money more than anything — including their users. Your children could be gambling on everything from elections to sports to whether Jesus will come back on one of these platforms as soon as they turn 18. They might even believe it’s “investing.”
Parents need to get in front of this speeding train. You can start by countering Kalshi’s talking points. Teach your children about good stewardship so they understand that true investing doesn’t simply mean trading investment products. Warn your children gambling can be addictive so they don’t fall hook, line and sinker for Kalshi’s glowing advertisements.
Perhaps most importantly, be aware of what your child is doing and viewing online. The internet is rife with pro-gambling content children shouldn’t absorb.
Additional Articles and Resources
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