This is the third in a series of four articles examining critical family formation trends: marriage, children living with married parents, divorce, and cohabitation. This report gives the overview of divorce numbers and risk from various academic and government sources.
In reflecting on his own divorce, novelist Pat Conroy famously said, “Each divorce is the death of a small civilization.” Conroy is correct. Divorce is the death of a family and family is the life-spring of civilization. It is a tragedy.
What is the U.S. trendline on divorce?
The University of Virginia’s National Marriage Project tracked the U.S. divorce rate in America from 1867 to present.
That rate has been climbing dramatically since the 1880s, with rollercoaster declines starting in 1940 lasting through the mid-160s where it spiked again until a 1980 leveling off, followed by a noted decline inching back toward 1960 levels.
The historic up-and-down numbers look like this:
1867 3 divorces per 1,000 people
1945 (end of WWII) 3 divorces per 1,000 people
1960 2 divorces per 1,000 people
1980 5 divorces per 1,000 people
2019 7 divorces per 1,000 people
Similarly, The National Center for Family & Marriage Research (NCFMR) at Bowling Green State University explains, “the share of the currently separated or divorced among ever-married women increased from less than one percent in 1900 to 20% in 2022.
That is dramatic overall growth, even though we have seen some noted decline in the last several decades.
Reasons for Divorce Decline
National Marriage Project scholars hold the reasons for the declining divorce rate since 1980 are increased age at marriage, higher educational attainment for those marrying, and dramatically increasing cohabitation rates, thus reducing the overall pool of possible divorcers.
Divorce Risk
NMP experts also explains divorce risk by race and ethnicity.
For the average couple marrying for the first time, the lifetime probability of divorce is probably around 40%. Racial-ethnic variation in divorce is significant. Roughly equal proportions of white and Black adults have experienced a divorce and [there are] lower levels among Hispanic and Asian adults [emphasis added].
Many people, however, face a dramatically decreased risk of divorce.
Couples who practice the Christian faith seriously and the disciplines and values it teaches face a substantially decreased life-time risk of divorce, some by as much as 30 to 50% reduced risk relative to the general population, as demonstrated here.
Conclusion
It is truly good news that the divorce rate in America has finally slowed and is declining. But most scholars agree, this is not because marriage is growing stronger and more valued. It is likely happening because of other sociological factors.
Focus on the Family offers Hope Restored Marriage Intensives. Hope Restored is a biblically based, Christian counseling experience for couples facing a crisis moment in their marriage or suffering from years of disconnection and relationship decay. You can find out more about Hope Restored here.
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