Most well-educated people get a very important point about the future of the world quite wrong. They strongly believe the most pressing problem facing humanity is too many people, when the exact opposite is our future’s greatest threat.
Leading demographers, writing recently in the British medical journal The Lancet, warn the world’s total fertility rate more than halved from 1950 to the present.
They explain, “Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950,” and replacement levels of 2.1 births per woman have only been sustained in 94 countries and territories throughout the world in 2021. That number is expected to drop to only 49 by 2050, plummeting to only 6 in 2100. That means that in 2050, only 24% of the world will be at minimal replacement level. That percentage will drop to only 3% at the end of this century.
The truth is, future global fertility rates are expected to decline to 1.8 lifetime births per woman in 2050 and 1.6 in 2100.
Sustained fertility declines have even been measured in 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa which have traditionally had robust population growth. These scholars warn, “Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies.”
Data like this is the strongest and most reliable scientific indicator of the end of humanity as we have. No nation can sustain itself with globally tanking natality numbers.
But these sober truths are not keeping the 2025 Natal Conference (NatalCon) from coming to Austin, Texas March 28-29. This organization correctly believes “The future belongs to those who show up.” And those who show up to the future start out as next year’s babies. And next year’s babies begin with pro-creative husbands and wives today.
This important conference’s 2025 speakers are noted researcher Pat Fagan, scholar and author Catherine Pakaluk, Bryan Caplan, Michael Anton from the Claremont Institute, demographer Lyman Stone, family scholar Scott Yenor, Gale Pooley, and Kevin Dolan, founder of NatalCon.
Politico derisively described NatalCon’s work as “the far right’s campaign to explode the population.”
No, their effort is simply to make sure humanity can sustain itself into the next century and beyond. But as the scholars who authored the recent Lancet study warn us, it is going to take a lot more aggressive efforts than conferences like this to make sure we all produce enough new humans to keep the human race going.
You can learn more about this conference at natalism.org.
Image from Shutterstock.
Related articles and resources:
Why Americans Over and Under 50 Say They Don’t Have Kids
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Death of the West? U.S. Fertility Rate Falls to Record Low.
Why Women Are Not Having the Babies They Say They Want
No, The World Does Not Have Too Many People. It Has Too Few.
Brad Wilcox Exhorts Young People to ‘Get Married’
China’s Population Drops by 2 Million in 2023 Due to Record Low Birth Rate
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Discarding Genesis 1, U.S. Population Set to Decline This Century Amid World Population Collapse
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