Religious data is one of the most fascinating things in the world. It brings the left side of the brain (show me the numbers) together with the right side (tell me a story). It gathers disparate disciplines to paint a picture—including statistics, mathematics, sociology, social science, political science, theology, and missiology. On the one hand, we must be cautious about what we can glean from data. On the other hand, religious data is a useful tool when rightly deployed.
In The American Religious Landscape: Facts, Trends, and the Future, Ryan Burge, associate professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University, provides an excellent, high-altitude view of the American religious landscape through the lens of the currently available data sets. My appreciation for religious data comes primarily in the theological, missiological, and behavioral contours it exposes, which can identify and inform our response to trends like those Jim Davis and I discuss in The Great Dechurching.
Anecdotally, there seems to be a trend toward increasing appreciation for high-quality religious data and the insights it can provide. However, it’s dangerous to cherry-pick religious data headlines because there are always competing storylines that foster both hope and discouragement. We have to digest the data, alert for reasons for optimism and reasons for pessimism. As I read The American Religious Landscape, I found five key ideas that enrich our understanding of our cultural moment and inform a realistic outlook for evangelicals.
1. America is religiously complex.
While the overwhelming majority of Americans self-identify with one of the three major branches of Christianity (Protestant, Roman Catholic, or Orthodox), the data reveals a greater complexity. For example, immigration has increased the total of non-Christian traditions like Islam, Judaism, Hinduism, and Buddhism from 4.7 percent of the population to 7.1 percent as of 2024.
Further, when you drill down into what self-identification means in the three major branches of Christianity, you can see wide variation in factors like the frequency of attendance, theological adherence, theological clarity, rates of decline, and spiritual migration patterns. This is a helpful reminder that data cannot replace personal curiosity and localized missiological approaches. We want to see more than religious self-identification; we want to see vibrant disciples of Jesus.
2. Nondenominationalism is rising.
In 1912, an ecumenical council gathered to address contemporary missiological challenges. One of the biggest issues discussed at that gathering (known as the second quadrennial Federal Council of the Churches of Christ in America) was a problem of “over-churching”—a challenge few would argue we face today.
© Oxford University Press, 2025. Used with permission.
Nevertheless, that body concluded that the way to solve the problem of too many churches, especially in the South, was to merge them into nondenominational Protestant community churches. Some point to this moment as the birth of nondenominationalism in America.
Nondenominationalism is now the largest evangelical tradition in America, with a precipitous rise in those who self-identify as nondenominational.
Much of the growth in evangelicalism is toward nondenominationalism, and one of the denominations hit the hardest by this trend is the Southern Baptist Convention.
3. Evangelicals are getting older.
While it’s broadly true that Christianity’s numerical decline has leveled, this is a temporary respite and the decline will continue. Evangelicalism’s future will be challenging due to generational replacement.
© Oxford University Press, 2025. Used with permission.
Evangelicals have always been slightly older than the broader population, but that gap is now widening. So, even among encouraging signs of a Gen Z revival, the current plateau is likely to be a temporary reprieve if we don’t make additional efforts to reach younger generations.
4. Evangelicals remain serious about devotion, activity, and practice.
© Oxford University Press, 2025. Used with permission.
The recent Pew Religious Landscape Study (2023–24) revealed younger people are leaving Christianity at higher rates than older generations.
This may seem discouraging. However, buried in this bad news is some good news. The same survey shows that younger evangelicals who are still churched are more engaged and remain serious about devotion, activity, and practice.
Additionally, attendance is up among Gen Z and younger millennials as well as the older Gen Xers and the younger boomers. And evangelicals have maintained a high view of the Bible relative to the rest of the population and other traditions.
5. The Nones are plateauing.
Perhaps the single most important religious trend in America is the plateauing of the Nones. This group includes three types of people—atheists, agnostics, and “nothing in particular.” For decades, the Nones were the fastest-growing religious group in the United States.
Burge writes, “This could just be a statistical blip—a possible plateau in the data—or it could portend a change in the trajectory of the nones” (258). The recent Pew Survey highlights a similar trend, which supports Burge’s uncertainty.
Overall, however, it’s likely the plateau of the “Nones” is temporary. According to The New York Times,
Burge said of the Pew data: “For every six Christians who left the faith—one joined. It’s the exact opposite for the nones—six joiners for every leaver.” He added, “You can’t get away from those trend lines.” It is very unlikely that children raised without religion will later become religious, as “none” is becoming just as sticky a religious identity as any other. According to Pew, only 40 percent of American parents of minor children are giving their kids any kind of religious education. Only 26 percent go to religious services once a week. We will eventually become a country that is 40-to-45 percent “nones,” Burge said, though it will likely take a few more decades to get there.
Even as cultural Christianity seems to be on the rise due to a vibe shift, it’s not clear whether these changes are a sign of strength or weakness in evangelicalism.
Facing the Task Ahead
Burge’s data reveals two divergent truths. First, a new generation of evangelicals is rising. They’re serious about the truths of historic Christianity and about applying those truths to their lives. Second, Christianity in general and evangelicalism in particular are likely still in decline. Time will tell whether the current plateau is a pause or the beginning of a positive trend.
In either case, the work of the gospel must continue. When we survey the American religious landscape, we can see we have decades of discipleship and evangelism ahead of us. The fertility of the soil types will likely ebb and flow, but we can trust the Lord of the harvest as we work to spread the gospel. After all, Jesus himself said he’d build his church and the gates of hell wouldn’t prevail against it (Matt. 16:18).
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