Israel and Hamas brokered another ceasefire this week after more than a year of fighting. The three-phase deal will reportedly begin with a prisoner exchange. If successful, the deal could permanently end the war.
Hamas will release the remaining women, children, elderly and severely injured people in their custody — 33 hostages — back to Israel starting as early as Sunday. In return, Israel will release a corresponding number of Palestinian prisoners from custody.
Israeli authorities do not yet know how many of the 33, which reportedly include two Americans, a five-year-old and one-year-old, will return alive. Of the 98 people still held by Hamas, including five more Americans, at least thirty are thought to be dead.
Stages two and three — and the fate of the 65 men who will remain in custody — depend on the success of phase one. Though the ceasefire’s terms closely mirror those proposed in failed agreements, both sides softened on previously unconditional demands, The Wall Street Journal reports.
Specifically, Hamas will allow Israeli forces to remain in Gaza while hostages are exchanged and, in return, Israel will continue negotiations after the hostages are safe instead of exterminating Hamas.
The parties’ changing stances reflect a changing geopolitical landscape that increasingly favors Israel.
Hamas’ regional and military position has weakened considerably since October 7th, 2023, when they massacred 1,200 civilians and captured 250 hostages. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have killed more than half of Hamas’ estimated 30,000 soldiers, and it lost its political and military leaders to Israeli strikes.
Hamas’ ally to the north, Hezbollah, has been similarly hamstrung. The Lebanese-based terror group lost hundreds of soldiers to Israeli offensives including the infamous pager attack. The remaining fighters have been largely rudderless after the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, who led Hezbollah for more than three decades.
Hamas and Hezbollah use Iran’s money and weapons to help the larger country destroy and isolate Israel. But Iran isn’t doing well either. The fall of Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian dictator who allowed Iran to run weapons through Syria to Lebanon, leaves Iran geographically isolated from its proxies. Ongoing protests and civil unrest have made it harder to exert effective influence abroad.
The incoming Trump administration also heralds an increasingly unfavorable political and social climate for Hamas.
Hamas can’t defeat Israel in head-to-head combat, so it relies on international pressure to restrain Israel before it deals the death blow. In his book, Should Christians Support Israel?, Dr. Jeff Myers of Summit Ministries quotes NGO Monitor:
Hamas’ uncompromising demands and cruelty to hostages following the first ceasefire reflects its confidence in this strategy, Michael Oren speculates in The Free Press:
Hamas fed off the spread of antisemitism in the West last year. Such sentiments will likely lose political power under a pro-Israel presidency.
Israel, for its part, is in a much stronger position than it was in October 2023. It’s no longer hemmed-in by Iranian proxies. A recent survey from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem found 60% of surveyed Israeli adults believe Israel met its military goals in Gaza. Perhaps most importantly, the American President-elect will likely shore up international support Israel has lost in recent years.
This renewed allyship could help explain why Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to a ceasefire. The Free Press reports that Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, helped convince the PM to make key compromises.
President-elect Trump’s specter probably accelerated Hamas’ ceasefire timeline, too. Last week, he promised “all hell [would] break out in the Middle East” if Hamas failed to release the hostages before his inauguration on January 20.
Please pray the ceasefire will secure the hostages safe return and the end of the Israel-Hamas war.
Additional Articles and Resources
Iran, Hezbollah and How They Effect the Israel-Hamas War
Praise God for Latest Israel News More Than 90 Hamas Hostages Released
The Syrian Genocide Should Embarrass Pro-Hamas Protesters
Six Lies Hamas Tells You, Debunked
Tragedy in Israel and the Gift of a Soft Heart
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