I think real estate market pressure can be good, evening supply and demand. But I’m not sure how to think about this housing market, with tons of first-time home buyers and seemingly endless demand as people look for more space, both in the living room and in the community. Where did all these people come from? Is this geographic re-sorting from urban to more rural areas a good thing?
Your observations are spot-on: it’s geographic sorting, with people moving from cities to less urban areas, especially among the wealthy. The good news is that the market is doing what it should. Mortgages are going to prime buyers with very good credit, and prices are going up because of demand and higher costs for construction materials, not because of speculation. While broader relocation patterns are more complicated, with actually fewer Americans moving than usual, the view from the most population-dense, high-rent cities paints a clear picture: people are fleeing expensive cities for less expensive suburbs and rural areas.
It’s pretty clear why people are moving out of cities. Remote work has changed the “price” of living away from cities. In the past, if you had to get to the office, living outside the city meant you had to pay the cost of commuting, which pushed most people to live in or near the city, even if rent and housing were expensive. Now commuting is free if you can work remotely. These people can choose to move since the “price” of living in less urban areas decreased.
We don’t know how persistent these changes will be. Maybe people will return to cities because they miss meeting in person with coworkers and going to restaurants and shows downtown. On the other hand, research by economists suggests remote work isn’t going away, so these changes might persist. Maybe people don’t need to live in cities to work there. It’s possible that the geographic sorting will spur innovation and investment in regions that have been in decline. Maybe we’ll see new churches being planted in places that have often been overlooked. Perhaps we’ll see investment in infrastructure for transportation, schools, restaurants, and shops, bringing new jobs to these regions. The flip side is less demand for these same resources in cities.
These changes present opportunities and responsibilities for Christians, whether they stay or move.
If You Stay: Welcoming New Neighbors
On the simplest level, the people who have relocated need community and friendship in their new homes. Indeed, many “COVID refugees” have moved with hopes of finding the community they struggled to find in the city. Unfortunately, some smaller communities can be stubbornly insular and hard for newcomers to break into. Added to this, research shows that the COVID refugees skew wealthy, highly educated, and single or childless. This so-called “untethered class” might face additional challenges finding community in their new homes—for example, they lack the opportunity parents have to make friends on the soccer field sidelines or gathered around the nursery after church.
Christians have an incredible opportunity here: we should be the most welcoming and hospitable people in our towns. The COVID refugees should immediately find their way into our lives—chatting on our sidewalks, eating at our tables, and being invited to playdates with our kids. We should ask them to come to church and welcome them warmly when they show up. These new “untethered” people should have no trouble finding Christian hospitality. Having more and possibly different types of people in town may present new challenges, but they’re challenges that Christians should patiently endure.
We should be the most welcoming and hospitable people in our towns.
There’s a complementary responsibility for Christians who remain in the city. The data shows that the people who “cannot” leave the cities are the least resourced and the most vulnerable. In his sermon after September 11, Tim Keller said something profound: “New York may become a more difficult, dangerous place to live economically, politically, vocationally, or emotionally. . . . If that happens, let’s stay. Let’s enter into the problems.”
The present geographic sorting might leave some cities in worse shape. It might be harder to live there. Our churches might dwindle in numbers and struggle financially. Christians who remain have opportunities to be radically welcoming, hospitable, and committed to the welfare of the city.
If You Leave: Flipping the Script
Remote work opens up possibilities for Christians to move. They may be able to prioritize family and community in ways that were difficult in the past.
For example, my wife’s campus minister, Tom, encouraged her and her friends to “flip the script” on planning life after college. Most people first find a job, learn where they’ll live, and then hope they find community there. Tom encouraged them to instead commit to a community of Christian friends, figure out where to live, and then find jobs to make it happen. My wife and her friends did that and developed a deep, rich community, with persistent benefits, as a result.
Tom’s advice was “radical” then because there was a real cost to flipping the script. But with remote work, perhaps that cost isn’t there anymore (or is less expensive). Maybe some people, younger and older, will choose to prioritize family, church, and community in planning their lives, and that’s a wonderful thing.
God Works Nonetheless
In the end, there’s no one-size-fits-all answer. God works through our decisions to stay and our decisions to leave. Jeremiah prophesied that God would work through those taken to Babylon and denounced those who stayed to seek their own welfare. God worked through the early church when they were scattered after Stephen’s martyrdom. And for centuries Christians have had tremendous witness during plagues by staying to care for the sick and dying.
God works in our staying where we are, being a light and strengthening the fabric of our community with longevity. And God works in our moving to be near family, or in finding a new community in which to be salt and light. Follow God in the ways he is leading you, whether that’s coming or going, and be faithful in, with, and through that decision.
The Gospel Coalition