As Both Campaigns Declare Victory, All Eyes on Arizona and Pennsylvania (and Georgia)

As everyone knows, the Presidential election is still very much up in the air. Early signs indicate things tipping toward Biden, but the fat lady is nowhere close to even arranging her sheet music yet. Ballot counting is still underway in a small handful of key states and it is still too early for either campaign to declare victory.  The Biden campaign has declared “We’ve won the election.” President Trump famously did on Tuesday evening. But Team Trump claims there is more behind this assertion than bluster.

Jason Miller, the chief election strategist for the Trump campaign held a major conference call with reporters yesterday explaining with calm confidence, “By the end of this week it will be clear to the entire nation that President Trump and Vice President Pence will be reelected for another four years.” Miller explained what’s behind his assertion, “We are confident in our pathway. We are confident in our math. We said all along we are viewing some of these races as math equations.” At this point, it looks as if the Presidential decision will come down to how the final votes go in Pennsylvania and Arizona.

Donald Trump currently stands at 214. If he wins GA and NC, where he is currently thinly favored, that gives him 245. If he takes PA’s 20 and AZ’s 11 electoral votes, that gives the President 276, putting him over the required 270 to hold his place at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave for four more years. If Biden wins AZ and Nevada, he lands precisely at his 270.

In Arizona, Miller and the Trump campaign are confident the still uncounted votes will tip that state Red. On the call yesterday, Miller stated that Biden’s Arizona lead over Trump was 93,000 out of 605,000 ballots. He explained that Trump would only need 57.5% of those votes and that Trump has been winning these late counted votes handily. At press time, the 93K Biden lead that Miller spoke of yesterday has been narrowed to 67,906.

Miller explained, “Over these next couple of days, as these ballots come in and are counted in the state of Arizona, that we could be looking at, potentially as soon as Friday, President Trump being declared the winner or it being clear that he has enough votes to formally say he will win the state of Arizona”

Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien said his data indicates a margin of 454,000 in Pennsylvania for Trump over Biden with 1.2 million votes still to be counted. The New York Times is reporting that election officials in Pennsylvania expect to have their state’s ballots fully counted by Friday, November 6.

We shall see. It’s not over ‘til it’s over.

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