Herd Immunity Reached? U.S. COVID Cases Continue Three Week Downward Trend.

Buried amid negative headlines, the United States is seeing a ray of light shine with good news about the coronavirus pandemic.

You may have missed it, but the United States is currently experiencing a significant reduction in coronavirus positive cases, a downward trend that has continued for the past three weeks.

Due to fluctuations in testing and reporting, the number of cases usually zig-zag up and down throughout the week. The highest number for the week is usually reported on Thursday or Friday, while the lowest number is usually reported on Monday.

According to statistics provided by Google, confirmed positive cases of the novel coronavirus reached a high of 75,821 new cases in one day on July 17. That Monday, on July 13, 58,260 were reported, which was the low for that week.

The following week, the highest number of new cases reached 74,360 on July 24, while 55,896 new cases were reported for the week’s low point on Monday, July 20.

Subsequently, on July 30, the week’s high number of new cases reached 68,543, while the low number was 54,805 on Monday.

And last week, on August 7, 60,184 new cases were reported on Friday while just 41,963 were recorded on Monday.

For this week, on Monday, August 10, the U.S. continued its downward trend and reported 40,171 new cases.

Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirms this trend.

The 7-day average of cases is another important indicator of how many cases have occurred on average, per day, over the course of a week.

According to the CDC, on Sunday, July 19, the 7-day average reached a near high point of 66,395 new cases.

On Sunday, July 26, the number was nearly unchanged at 66,332 new cases for the 7-day average.

The following week, on Sunday, August 2, the average had fallen substantially to 60,488.

And last Sunday, on August 9, the average number of new cases continued to decline to 53,507.

This points to a 19% reduction in COVID-19 positive tests in just two weeks.

A recent study out of Singapore has added evidence to the theory that cross-reactive T cells acquired from the common cold, 30% of which are coronaviruses, may provide some level of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. The study reinforced the idea that herd immunity may be achieved when just 10 to 20% of a population has contracted the virus.

Currently, 5,064,171 Americans have had confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus. CDC Director Robert Redfield also confirmed in June that up to 10 times as many people may have had the coronavirus than the official tally indicates.

If that holds up, around 50,000,000 Americans may have already had the novel coronavirus, which would add up to 15% of Americans.

This would put us in the middle of that 10 to 20% herd immunity benchmark.

Has herd immunity for the novel coronavirus been reached?

It’s too early to tell. However, the recent downtrend may indicate that could soon be the case.

Gerry Baker, a columnist for The Wall Street Journal, recently said in an interview on Fox News, “The media’s coverage of the coronavirus in this country has been extraordinarily full of misrepresentations and a lot of dishonestly to be honest.”

Baker is correct, and his assertion may be why you missed this good news on the pandemic.

You can follow this author on Twitter @MettlerZachary

Photo from Shutterstock

 

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